TI Tea Pot Party @ Oct' 2010

Just for you, Mr. Tan from Malacca.

Is there a super bull run in 2010?

Although the economic situation now compares with that of 1993, the last push must come from local retail investors

THE recent rally in our local bourse has prompted many seasoned investors, especially those who experienced the super bull run in 1993, to wonder whether the current rally is about to turn into a real bull run. Of course, nobody can tell for sure what will happen next, but we certainly can do some homework, comparing the circumstances back in 1993 against the current situation.

In 1991, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad unveiled the philosophy of “Malaysia Incorporated” which was a development strategy for Malaysia to achieve a developed nation by 2020. In the early 1990s, despite slowdown in the global economy, as the third largest economy in South-East Asia, after Indonesia and Thailand, Malaysia was supported by relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient financial system. With the real GDP growing at 9.9%, ringgit appreciation, strong export growth and the Government’s measures to hold inflation low at 3.6%, the local stock market became an attractive alternative to foreign investors.

Before 1993, foreign investment in Malaysia was mainly dominated by long-term direct investment in the manufacturing sector. However, as a result of measures taken to develop our domestic equity market, coupled with the strong economic backdrop, we saw a massive influx of foreign capital inflow, which helped fuel the super bull-run in 1993. Within the year, the market increased by 98% to reach an all-time high of 1,275.3 points and foreign investors’ participation accounted for 15% of total trading value of our local bourse. This had also driven the market into a highly speculative one, which lured many retailers into the market, thinking of making fast and easy money.

With the presence of new and unfamiliar players, the market became a huge “casino”. Retail investors bought into stocks based on rumours rather than company fundamentals. Among the hottest topics during that time were the awards of government mega projects, privatisation candidates, sector play and regular news on upward revision of corporate earnings. Examples for the highly speculative stocks were Ekran, Ayer Molek Rubber Co, Berjuntai Tin Dredging and Kramat Tin Dredging.

In 1993, with the economy booming, the Government planned several mega projects, including the KL International Airport (RM8bil), Johor-Singapore Second Link (RM1.6bil) and Kuala Lumpur Light Rail Transit (RM1.1bil). The news of contract awarding immediately sent the market into speculative mood on those potential candidates. Similarly, the news of the Government planning on privatising some of the its own corporations, such as Petronas, KTM and Pos Malaysia had also driven these counters into prime trading targets.

Dreaming: Will the super bull run come?

Besides, the ease of accessing bank credit by investors also contributed to the market rally. We noticed that a high percentage of loans was channelled to broad property sector as well as the purchase of securities.

As a result of massive inflow of foreign funds and the super bull run in stock market, Bank Negara introduced a number of selective capital controls in early 1994 to stabilise the financial system,

Recently, our Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak unveiled the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) with the aim to boost our gross national income (GNI) to US$523bil in 2020 from US$188bil in 2009. The programme is to attract investment not only from the Government, but also (more importantly) from domestic direct investment as well as foreign direct investment. In view of strong economic growth, our GDP growth is anticipated to increase by 6% this year.

In September, we notice that there was a net inflow of foreign funds again in our equity market. Over the past few weeks, the average stock market daily volume had been hovering above one billion shares per day. Almost every day, the top 10 highly traded stocks were those speculative stocks with poor fundamentals. In addition, we noticed that some retail investors had started to get excited again in the stock market.

According to Andrew Sheng in his book titled From Asian To Global Financial Crisis, there were two main indicators to irrational exuberance during the super bull run in 1993. The first was the amah (domestic maid) syndrome. We need to be careful when amahs got excited about the stock market. This was because they did not know what they were buying and would always be the last to sell. The second indicator was when businessmen began to speculate stocks in the stock market. This was because they might neglect their businesses and use some of their cash for speculation.

Comparing our current market situation with the 1993 bull run, there are certain similarities that we see, such as strong economic growth, ringgit appreciation, inflow of foreign capital and ease of credit. However, our local retailer participation is yet to get boiling, which may be the last push factor towards the bull run. Hence, once the participation of the local investors starts to get heated up, together with more inflow of foreign fund, that may be the signs of the market heading for a ‘mini’ super bull run.

● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Source : thestaronline

蔡细历建议华裔雇主中秋节放员工半天假

（峇株巴辖20日）马华总会长拿督斯里蔡细历建议华裔雇主允许华裔员工在中秋节享有半天假期，好让他们回家庆团圆。

他说，本月22日就是中秋节，马华允许马华总部及区会职员享有半天假期，以便早点回家欢庆中秋，这是发扬文化的实际做法。

“友族同胞早已认同中秋节是华族文化节日，所以我们可看到友族出席中秋晚会品尝月饼，而市场上也开始出现回教徒可食的月饼。”

他不否认，中秋节这传统节日已被商业化，现在月饼包装越来越精美，月饼也不断“加料”，甚至出现售价高达150至200令吉的燕窝月饼。

“虽然中秋节已被商业化，但我们不能遗忘这传统节日的意义，年轻一代应在中秋节这天回家庆团圆。”

蔡细历昨晚为峇株巴辖爱心之家主办“爱心千万千中秋晚会”主持开幕时，这么指出。

推动文化活动

蔡细历说，历史上很多辉煌文化，如罗马文化，早已荡然无存，这提醒我们，文化的存在并非理所当然，唯有与时并进，吸引年轻一代对文化活动的重视，才能确保传统文化发扬光大。

Source : http://drchua9.blogspot.com/

Wisdom Wise: Don't be the next victim.

Wisdom Wise: Don't be the next victim.: "Man who lost S$26mil gambling to sue casino Fri, Aug 20, 2010 The Star/Asia News Network ..."

亚州盆景雅石展赛 2010

The Rules from the Man

Received the e-mail, say at last a guy has taken the time to write down all this.

The guys' side of story, must admit, it's pretty good.

We always hear "The Rules from the Female Side"

Now here are the rules from the male side.

These are our rules.

Please note....... These are all numbered "1" intensionally.

1. Man are NOT mind readers.

1. Learn to work on the toilet seat. You're a big girl. If it's up, you put it down. We need it down.

You don't hear we are complaining about, when you leave it down.

1. Sunday sports... It's like the full moon or the changing of tides. Let it be.

1. Crying is balckmail.

1. Ask for what you want. Let us be clear on this one, subtle hints do not works!

Strong hints do not work! Obvious hints do not work! Just say it.

1. YES and NO are perfectly acceptable answer to almost every question.

1. Come to us with a problem ONLY, if you need help solving it. That's what we do. Sympathy is what your girlfriends are for.

1. Anything we said 6 months ago is inadmissoble in an argument. In fact, all comments become null and void after 7 days.

1. If you think you are fat, you probably are....... don't ask us.

1. If something we said can be interpreted two ways and one of the way makes you sad or angry, we meant the other one.

1. You can either ask us to do something OR tell us how you want it to be done. Not both. If you already know the best way to do it, just do it yourself.

1. When ever possible, please say what ever you have to say during commercials..........

1. Christopher Columbus did NOT need directions and neither do we.

1. ALL man see in only 16 colours, like windows default setting. Peach, for exanple, is a fruit, not a colour. Pumkin is also a fruit, we have no idea what mauve is.

1. If it is itches, it will be scratched. That's what we do.

1. If we ask what is wrong and you say "Nothing", we will act like nothing is wrong. We know you are lying, but it is just not worth the hassle.

1. If you ask a question, you don't want to answer, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

1. When we have to go some where, absolutely anything you wear is fine..... really.

1. Don't ask us what we're thinking about, unless you are prepared to discuss such topics, like golfing and fishing.

1. You have enough clothes.

1. You have too many shoes.

1. I am in shape. Round is a shape.

1. Thank you for reading this. Yes, i know, i have to sleep on the couch tonite; but did you know men really don't mind that? It like camping.

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